Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Strength: Aryna Sabalenka boasts a second-serve win percentage of 40.47% in recent months, while Jessica Pegula has a slightly stronger performance at 43.12%.
• Return Game Comparison: Aryna Sabalenka has won 46.75% of her opponent's second-serve points, with Jessica Pegula doing better at 51.58%. On first serves, Sabalenka's return success is 30.30%, narrowly above Pegula's 29.57%. Which player’s returns will it be decisive in the match? The stats suggest Pegula might have the upper hand.
• Performance Under Pressure: Both players show similar capability in breakpoint conversion, with Sabalenka saving 52.43%, and Pegula barely edging her out at 52.50%.
• Overall Win Rate: Over the past year, Sabalenka has a higher match win rate at 82.19% compared to Pegula’s 70.27%, suggesting Sabalenka's consistent performance.
• Preferred Playing Surface: Both players favor hard courts with a 74% win rate. Indoor hard courts prove trickier for both, with Sabalenka at 64% and Pegula at 57%.
• Event Level Performance: Sabalenka achieves a 77.78% win rate at Masters series, surpassing Pegula's 67.65%, which might give her a slight edge in high-pressure matches.
• Previous Encounters: They've met 11 times, with Sabalenka winning 8 encounters and Pegula claiming 3. Is this historical dominance a clue for the outcome? Sabalenka has certainly shown a historical tendency to win.
• Match Duration: Their average match time sits at 1:34:24, indicating closely contested matches.
• Deciding Set Record: In deciding sets against each other, Pegula leads 2-1, highlighting her resilience in tight situations.
• Opponent Quality: Both players face opponents of nearly identical average ranks, showing they compete against similarly ranked opposition.
• Deciding Set Performance: Pegula slightly excels with a 62% win rate in deciding sets over the last year, compared to Sabalenka's 59%, which might be critical if the match goes the distance.
• Factoring in Current Event Dynamics: Performance consistency should be checked in the ongoing event for more nuanced predictions.

Editorial Prediction (November 4, 2025, UTC):

In this upcoming match, Aryna Sabalenka's overall win rate and previous head-to-head success against Jessica Pegula could indicate a likely victory on her part.

While Pegula displays better proficiency on the return game and in deciding sets, Sabalenka's superior win rates both overall and on high-pressure stages may provide her the essential edge needed in this matchup.

Based on these considerations, Aryna Sabalenka appears poised to emerge victorious in the forthcoming clash, though Jessical Pegula's strengths could make for a competitive encounter.